Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.228515 0.275970 0.333272 0.408337 0.505235 0.627702 7.967926e-01
2025-05-25 0.155107 0.203863 0.269402 0.366130 0.509120 0.719243 1.064452e+00
2025-06-01 0.118086 0.166706 0.238395 0.356163 0.553920 0.891302 1.557294e+00
2025-06-08 0.092958 0.139626 0.214297 0.349626 0.606348 1.115381 2.340084e+00
2025-06-15 0.075768 0.120357 0.197263 0.350285 0.677845 1.437651 3.720743e+00
2025-06-22 0.062749 0.104775 0.182362 0.350829 0.756482 1.862043 6.118734e+00
2025-06-29 0.050800 0.088269 0.161358 0.332038 0.787019 2.223039 9.292709e+00
2025-07-06 0.037535 0.066545 0.124745 0.265899 0.663175 2.023445 9.772195e+00
2025-07-13 0.032224 0.059139 0.115835 0.262855 0.719472 2.542528 1.651501e+01
2025-07-20 0.028728 0.054640 0.112072 0.272055 0.826233 3.475109 3.346868e+01
2025-07-27 0.026107 0.051422 0.110443 0.287289 0.974814 5.000208 8.094071e+01
2025-08-03 0.023764 0.048329 0.108344 0.301036 1.140382 7.228849 2.271068e+02
2025-08-10 0.020645 0.043067 0.099940 0.293211 1.220537 9.395196 6.228543e+02
2025-08-17 0.017864 0.038074 0.091003 0.279951 1.268459 11.761168 1.917213e+03
2025-08-24 0.016115 0.035260 0.087427 0.285585 1.446043 17.428388 1.722281e+04
2025-08-31 0.014615 0.032781 0.084178 0.291550 1.652290 26.623915 1.407649e+06
2025-09-07 0.013406 0.030819 0.081982 0.301585 1.928473 43.798705 NaN
2025-09-14 0.012316 0.028962 0.079623 0.310230 2.236303 74.265840 NaN
2025-09-21 0.011045 0.026372 0.074146 0.300612 2.361184 105.942168 NaN
2025-09-28 0.009196 0.021886 0.061240 0.246167 1.897712 79.561590 NaN
2025-10-05 0.008472 0.020500 0.058787 0.246959 2.098784 127.276598 NaN
2025-10-12 0.007987 0.019720 0.058274 0.258610 2.492435 259.719310 NaN
2025-10-19 0.007610 0.019190 0.058546 0.275733 3.064031 661.705884 NaN